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LESSONS

Halvings and issuance

Every 210,000 blocks the subsidy halves. Issuance falls, miners' subsidy income halves overnight, and the price is not part of the rule.

5 MIN READ
COURSE · Bitcoin's monetary policySTAGE 4 · GO DEEPLESSON 2 OF 6
Timeline of the four halvings and the next.
LEVEL · Intermediate
IN THIS LESSON · 2 OF 6
BY THE END YOU WILL BE ABLE TO ANSWER
  • When is the next halving?
  • What does the halving do to the price?
  • What has happened to miners after each halving so far?
  • Look up the current block height on mempool.space. Halvings happen every 210,000 blocks; the next one is at 1,050,000. How many blocks remain? Enter your answer.

Then prove it: a 3-question quiz · a challenge. The lesson marks itself complete at 100%.

After this lesson you can: explain what a halving changes and what it does not.

The halving is automatic. At block heights that are multiples of 210,000, nodes simply expect half the previous subsidy. Nothing is announced; the code has always known the dates in blocks.

The record

Timeline of the four halvings so far and the next expected one.
Four halvings so far. The dates were never announced; the block heights were always known.

  • 28 November 2012, block 210,000: 50 to 25 BTC.
  • 9 July 2016, block 420,000: 25 to 12.5.
  • 11 May 2020, block 630,000: 12.5 to 6.25.
  • 19/20 April 2024, block 840,000: 6.25 to 3.125.
  • Next: block 1,050,000, expected around April 2028, to 1.5625.

Issuance in practice

Bar chart of new bitcoin per day by epoch: 7,200, 3,600, 1,800, 900, 450 and an estimated 225.
New coins per day, at 144 blocks a day.

A graph of Bitcoin’s inflation rate and total supply over time. The issuance schedule of new bitcoin is precisely regulated by Bitcoin’s source code.
Issuance halves on a schedule; supply flattens toward 21 million.Image: River Learn

At about 144 blocks a day, 3.125 BTC per block is roughly 450 new bitcoin a day, about 164,000 a year, under 1% of supply. After the next halving: about 225 a day. Bitcoin's "inflation rate" fell below the Federal Reserve's 2% target in 2020 and below gold's annual supply growth in 2024.

Effect on miners

Cycle after a halving: subsidy halves, weak miners exit, difficulty falls, survivors recover, hash rate climbs again.
What has happened after each halving so far.

Subsidy income halves overnight while costs do not. Inefficient miners shut down, hash rate dips, difficulty adjusts down, and the survivors earn the same subsidy with less competition. Every halving so far has been followed within months by a new hash rate high.

Effect on price

None, by rule. The price rose after each of the first three halvings, which is three data points and a popular story; the Markets and price course takes it apart. The halving is a supply fact; what the market does with it is not written anywhere.

Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment NgU Tech · ExplainerWatch on YouTube ↗
MINI CHALLENGEDo this now: blocks to the next halving

Look up the current block height on mempool.space. Halvings happen every 210,000 blocks; the next one is at 1,050,000. How many blocks remain? Enter your answer.

blocks
We got 55 Bitcoiners to celebrate the 2024 Bitcoin Halving together · @parachutesBTCWatch on YouTube ↗
CHECK YOURSELF
1/3 When is the next halving?
2/3 What does the halving do to the price?
3/3 What has happened to miners after each halving so far?
pick an answer for each question

SOURCES

  1. What is a bitcoin halving? (River Learn)
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