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LESSONS

Is there a second best?

There is no second best because the category has one member. Diversifying across tokens adds issuer risk and correlation, not safety.

5 MIN READ
Two panels on what diversification means versus what diversifying into altcoins actually gives you.
LEVEL · Intermediate
IN THIS LESSON · 7 OF 8
BY THE END YOU WILL BE ABLE TO ANSWER
  • Why does "diversifying" into altcoins not reduce risk?
  • What is the bitcoiner response to a genuinely useful new technology?
  • When does diversification work?
  • How many members does the category "decentralised, fixed-supply money with no issuer" have?

Then prove it: a 3-question quiz · a challenge. The lesson marks itself complete at 100%.

After this lesson you can: answer "why not diversify across coins?".

The question sounds reasonable: even if Bitcoin is best, surely something is second? The answer bitcoiners give is that money is a winner-take-most category, and the things in second place are not competing for the same prize.

Why "second best" fails

  • Money converges. Menger's insight from Money 101: markets drift to the single most saleable good. Two monies in one market is a transition, not an equilibrium.
  • The alternatives are not trying to be money. Platforms, stablecoins, utility tokens and memecoins are other things. Comparing them with bitcoin is comparing airlines with gold.
  • Every alternative has a centre. Which means its supply, rules and history are someone's decision.

"But diversify"

Two columns: the risks altcoins share with bitcoin and the extra risks they add.
Holding ten tokens is concentration with extra steps.

Diversification works when assets carry different risks. Altcoins mostly share one risk, bitcoin's price, and add more: issuer failure, regulatory action against the issuer, token unlocks, rug pulls. In every bear market the top tokens have fallen more than bitcoin and most never recovered their prior highs. Holding ten of them is concentration with extra steps.

The honest position

Useful new technology gets built on or around bitcoin: Lightning, Fedimint, Cashu, Taproot Assets.
The bitcoiner response to a useful idea: build it on bitcoin, do not hold its token as savings.

Bitcoiners can be wrong about specifics. A technology for private payments or asset issuance might emerge that bitcoiners underrate. But it would be a tool, not a money, and the right response would be to build it on or around bitcoin rather than to hold its token as savings. That is, in fact, what Lightning, Fedimint, Cashu and Taproot Assets are.

Is There A Second Best? · Michael Saylor, explainerWatch on YouTube ↗
MINI CHALLENGECategory count

How many members does the category "decentralised, fixed-supply money with no issuer" have?

CHECK YOURSELF
1/3 Why does "diversifying" into altcoins not reduce risk?
2/3 What is the bitcoiner response to a genuinely useful new technology?
3/3 When does diversification work?
pick an answer for each question

SOURCES

  1. Why don't altcoins threaten bitcoin? (River Learn)
  2. Parker Lewis, Gradually, Then Suddenly: Bitcoin Obsoletes All Other Money (Nakamoto Institute)
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